Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 18 - 24 March 2013

Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 18 - 24 March 2013

Post by SWPC.Webmas.. » Tue, 26 Mar 2013 20:30:08

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Mar 25 0252 UTC
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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 - 24 March 2013

Solar activity was very low to moderate. Low activity dominated the
week with low level C-class flares observed on 18-20 and March.
Activity increased to moderate levels on 21 March when Region 1692
(N09, L=077, class/area Dki/340 on 20 Mar) produced an M1flare at
21/2204 UTC. A filament eruption was observed around 19/1400 UTC
from the area surrounding Region 1695 (N10, L=055, class/area
Dao/180 on 18 Mar). A faint Earth-directed CME was associated with
this event, as well as Type II (850 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps.
The period ended with very low levels on 23-24 March.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The period
began with slightly enhanced proton levels due to residual effects
from the 15 March CME but returned to background levels by 19 March.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate to high levels. Moderate levels were observed on 18-19
March followed by an increase to high levels on 20-23 March reaching
a peak flux of 3,880 particle flux units (pfu) at 22/1640 UTC. Flux
decayed to moderate levels on 24 March.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. The period
began with mostly quiet conditions from 18-20 March. An increase to
quiet to active levels was observed on 21 March due to effects from
the two CMEs related to filament activity on 17 March. Quiet
conditions prevailed for the remainder of the period with the
exception of an isolated active period at the close of 23 March.
This increase in activity was possibly related to the weak CME
observed on 19 March.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 March - 20 April 2013

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low throughout the
period. A slight chance for M-class activity is possible from 01-13
April when old Regions 1692, 1696 (N04, L=095) and 1698 (S19, L=118)
return to the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to begin the period at normal to moderate levels. High
levels are expected from 29 March-04 April due to recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream effects (CH HSS). A return to normal to
moderate levels is expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin the period at moslty
quiet levels. Quiet to active conditions with a chance for minor
storm periods are expected on 28-30 March due to recurrent CH HSS
effects.